While looking outside the window this morning, it was evident the sky had not fallen at Notre Dame. Oftentimes, though, that is a knee-jerk reaction that accompanies the loss of recruits that had previously issued a verbal commitment to Notre Dame.
This weekend, Notre Dame lost its third and fourth verbals of this campaign when outside linebacker/defensive end hybrid Blake Lueders (Zionsville, Ind.) changed his mind and opted for Stanford. Meanwhile, running back Giovanni Bernard of St. Thomas Aquinas in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. decided he will attend either North Carolina or Oregon State (where his brother, Yvenson, played from 2004-07 and is now in the CFL).
Earlier in the coaching transition from Charlie Weis to Brian Kelly, Colorado defensive end Chris Martin switched his allegiance to the California Bears, and Texas cornerback Toney Hurd Jr. announced for Texas A&M at the Under Armour All-American Game. In the case of Hurd, the message he was receiving was that the new regime was not interested.
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Kelly and the Irish coaching staff have seen four recruits back out of their verbal commitments since Weis' dismissal.
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Thus, numerous questions arise:
Is this the most verbal commits Notre Dame has lost in a year?
It’s tied — not coincidentally, with the 2005 haul when Weis was hired to succeed Tyrone Willingham. Weis and Co. ended up with only 15 players that year – the fewest in school history – when four players opted to sign elsewhere: receiver Martin Frierson (Georgia Tech), receiver David Nelson (Florida), cornerback Brandon Harrison (Michigan) and defensive end Lawrence Wilson (Ohio State).
Harrison had the most productive career with 164 tackles and three interceptions. Wilson was beset with injury problems in 2007-08 and was 13th in tackles this past season as a fifth-year senior with 23 (three for loss). Nelson had a decent individual career at Florida with 46 catches for 630 yards and seven touchdowns, but did win two national titles. Frierson switched to defense early in his career and was mainly a reserve, finishing with 22 career tackles.
When a coaching staff has not been able to build a strong foundation with a player that often begins a year earlier, it’s not unusual for a discomfort or even disconnect to occur.
When Willingham took the reins in 2002, the Irish lost two commits, defensive lineman Jeremy Van Alstyne to Michigan and receiver Josh Hannum to Penn State. That was not a make-or-break proposition.
Since 2007, Notre Dame has lost anywhere from one to three verbals per year:
• 2007: receiver Greg Little (North Carolina), offensive tackle Chris Little (now at Florida A&M) and defensive lineman Justin Trattou (Florida).
• 2008: defensive lineman Omar Hunter (Florida)
• 2009: receiver Nyshier Oliver (Tennessee) and cornerback Marlon Pollard (UCLA)
Nevertheless, given Notre Dame’s recent issues of volume and marquee value along the defensive line, missing out on Martin and Lueders — plus the earlier news of athlete Anthony Barr choosing UCLA — are setbacks that can’t be minimized, especially because it continues the pattern of recruiting inconsistency on defense.
If coaching transitions are tough, how is it Gerry Faust recruited a No. 1 class in his first year at Notre Dame (1981)?
That was the year Faust signed 13 Parade All-Americans — still easily a national record — but it was a different world back then.
One, Notre Dame had been a top-5 program in the 17 years from 1964-80 with a 148-33-5 (.809) record, three national titles, a share of a fourth, and several other near misses. Combine such success with Faust’s enthusiasm and charisma, and the Irish were a lethal force on the recruiting trail.
Two, back then “early commitments” were defined as anything before New Year’s Day, so it was more a case of starting from the same base. Plus, Faust’s announcement came in November, and many members from Dan Devine’s previous staff were staying on.
Three, back then Notre Dame owned the top Catholic high school talent, and Faust alone signed nine players from his home state of Ohio, three from Archbishop Moeller, where he had coached.
But the great individual talent never meshed or developed cohesively as a team.
What would be the needed salve for this recruiting class?
Probably reeling in a seven-man harvest of offensive tackles Seantrel Henderson and Matt James, defensive end J.R. Ferguson, linebacker Christian Jones, safeties Corey Cooper and Jeremy Ioane, and athlete Danny Spond, which is not going to happen.
The Irish could give the full 25 football grants-in-aid this year, but they’re realistically not going to get there. James, Ioane and Spond are the most probable additions, although a surprise or two is not out of the question.
The problem again comes back to the defensive line, where the top schools such as Alabama, Texas, USC, Florida, etc. routinely bring in four or five prospects a year, therefore providing a margin of error.
Last year, Notre Dame signed only one (Tyler Stockton) and this year it has only two (Louis Nix, Justin Utupo).
Is it time to panic?
No, because we can’t forget that the 2007 recruiting class is top-20 caliber (it would have been in the top 5 or 10 had Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate not turned pro a year early), the 2008 group was generally considered the best with Alabama’s and the 2009 group, although not sterling, was still top 20.
Provided there is good coaching and development, that can help carry a class to at least nine wins the next couple of years, similar to the way Weis did in 2005-06 with the aid of a top-20 class in 2002 and a top-10 one in 2003. What you look for is for the class to begin peaking as juniors or seniors, certainly not as sophomores and freshmen.
That’s why one could envision problems in 2007 after Notre Dame had its two worst ranked classes ever in 2004 and 2005, with the former barely in the top 25 and the latter not even in the top 30. Was it 3-9 bad? Probably not, but only 17 players total from those two classes remained in 2007.
Believing this 2010 harvest might be a top 10 class would be a stretch right now, and we would say that even if Henderson came aboard. Henderson does not address the problems on defense. Over the past 20 years, history shows that when the Irish don’t sign a top-10 class (1991, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005), the Irish usually struggle when that group becomes seniors.
For example, the 1991 group was carried by the No. 1 class of 1990, which went 11-1 as seniors in 1993. When that 1990 unit graduated and the ’91 group took over as seniors in 1994, the record plummeted from 11-1 to 6-5-1.
Last year’s Notre Dame class was ranked as high as 14th (ESPN) and as low as 21st (Rivals.com) and 24th (Scout.com). This year, with the recent loss of Lueders and Bernard, Notre Dame dropped to 28th in Scout.com, although it is still 19th on ESPN and 14th on Rivals.com (which had not yet eliminated Bernard).
Consecutive recruiting classes outside of the top 15 or 20 at Notre Dame might not bode well by 2012 … depending on how well Kelly and Co. do indeed develop the talent on hand.
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