Navy Running Game vs. Notre Dame Run Defense Through nine games, the Midshipmen have averaged 279.78 yards per contest. Fullback Vince Murray leads Navy with 638 yards on 135 carries (4.7 yards per attempt), and has been stopped for a loss only once this season. Quarterback Ricky Dobbs will be back in the lineup after missing most of the past two games with an injury and will be looking to build on an NCAA-best 16 rushing touchdowns. The Irish have allowed just 108.6 yards per game the past five outings — just more than 15 yards below their season average through eight games (123.88 yards allowed). Notre Dame’s defensive linemen (275.0) also outweigh Navy’s offensive linemen (264.8) by just less than 11 pounds per man.
Advantage:
Hughes is coming off of 131-yard performance against Washington State a week ago.
Navy Passing Game vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense Dobbs is as dangerous with his arm as any Midshipman quarterback in recent seasons, and he put that on display in a comeback attempt against the Irish that fell short by just six points in 2008. This year, he carries a respectable 137.59 pass efficiency rating, though he has attempted only 66 throws, completing 33 of them (50 percent) for 618 yards (77.2 per game) with three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Irish pass defense has made a habit of making everyone look good this season — especially the five first-year starters, like Dobbs, they have faced prior to Washington State — though they held Cougar’s freshman quarterback Jeff Tuel to 104 yards with two interceptions last weekend.
Advantage: Even
Notre Dame Running Game vs. Navy Run Defense As is the case for Notre Dame’s defensive linemen, the Irish offensive linemen (315.0) will outweigh the Midshipmen (262.3), in this case by more than 50 pounds per man. Navy features a three-man front, which has allowed a respectable 137.44 yards per game, though the Midshipmen are coming off of 274 yards allowed in last weekend’s loss to Temple. Cloaked by one of the nation’s top passing attacks, Notre Dame’s rushing offense quietly averages a healthy 147.88 yards per game, and is coming off of a season-high 255 yards against Washington State during which Robert Hughes filled in for a leading rusher Armando Allen (514 yards) with 131 yards on 24 carries with a touchdown.
Advantage: Even
Notre Dame Passing Game vs. Navy Pass Defense Navy’s pass defense has not have been tested by a passing attack that executes as well as Notre Dame’s. The highest-ranked passing offense the Midshipmen have faced was SMU (No. 18). Through eight contests, the Irish rank No. 8 in the nation while averaging 309.75 yards per game. Jimmy Clausen ranks as the NCAA’s second-most efficient passer with a rating of 164.25 while completing 66.9 percent of his passes for 2,318 yards with 18 touchdowns and just two interceptions. His primary target, Golden Tate, is third in the nation in receiving yards (927) and tied for second with nine touchdowns.
Advantage:
Special Teams Navy’s return teams leave much to be desired, ranking well into the bottom half of the country in both kickoff and punt returns. However, their counterparts on the coverage teams have been much more reliable, including punter Kyle Delahooke, who ranks No. 19 in the nation with an average of 43.22 yards punt, including a net of 38.28 yards. Midshipmen placekicker Joe Buckley has been effective as well while connecting on 8 of 10 field goal attempts (80 percent) with a long of 50 yards. The Irish have been marginally more successful with their return teams, and Theo Riddick enters the weekend with an average of 23.5 yards per kick return. Notre Dame’s punting situation has been up in the air in recent weeks, but freshman kicker Nick Tausch has been a pleasant surprise this season, and he carries a streak of 14 consecutive field goals made – a school record – after missing the first attempt of his collegiate career.
Advantage: Even
Coaching Charlie Weis does hold the dubious distinction of being the coach that let an NCAA-record 43-game winning streak against the Midshipmen get away when his Irish lost in overtime, 46-44, in 2007. Still, he is 3-1 against Navy with an average margin of victory of 17 points in the wins. Ken Niumatalolo is in the middle of just his second season as a head coach, though he did record the most wins by a first-year coach in Naval Academy last season when he led his team to an 8-5 record. He also wisely retained many of the program’s assistants following the departure of former head coach Paul Johnson, a group that helped bring the Midshipmen back into the national spotlight with a 51-25 (.671) record over the previous six seasons, including a school-record six consecutive bowl game appearances.
Advantage:
Intangibles
Even though Navy took the most recent matchup at Notre Dame Stadium in 2007, it is still just 4-26 all time against the Irish in South Bend. However, under Weis, the Irish are just 19-12 at home, including just 6-4 during the month of November. Since losing to Navy at Notre Dame Stadium in 2007, the Irish are just 1-4 at home during the month of November.
Advantage:
Analysis
Notre Dame had complete control of this game last year until a fourth-quarter fumble near the Navy end zone and a couple of onside kick snafus made it too close for comfort. The Irish again have a distinct talent and depth advantage, but that hasn’t mattered much to Navy in recent seasons, as the Midshipmen will enter the Notre Dame game having already secured their seventh consecutive bowl bid. Still, the Irish opened the week as double-digit favorites.
Predictions
Todd D. Burlage: Notre Dame 38, Navy 24 John Haynsworth: Notre Dame 34, Navy 20 Ryan O’Leary: Notre Dame 38, Navy 17 Jason Sapp: Notre Dame 28, Navy 16 Lou Somogyi: Notre Dame 35, Navy 23
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