Last Thursday night, two-touchdown-plus favorite Virginia Tech was upset at home by North Carolina. The following evening, West Virginia was toppled by South Florida. Then yesterday, Oklahoma State and South Carolina bit the dust.
Several others — Miami, Houston and Utah — could have just as easily dropped behind the Irish before snatching 11th-hour victories … but plenty of time remains. That’s the beauty of college football once the calendar flips to November. It’s taking a sumptuous feast in small bites, not one massive gulp. It’s chipping away gradually — Shawshank Redemption, anyone? — rather than worrying about dynamiting a hole into the wall in just one week.
Gradually ascending two or even three spots per week is realistic, as long as you are not derelict in your own duties.
“If we want to put ourselves in the picture to play in a top-flight bowl game at the end of the year, we have to — slowly but surely, week by week — take care of business,” noted Irish head coach Charlie Weis several days prior to the 40-14 victory over currently moribund Washington State. “That’s the most imperative thing.”
Weis has the Irish in position for a run at a third BCS appearance in five seasons.
Style points matter mainly if you’re gunning for the national title game, which Notre Dame no longer cannot this year. But finishing out the regular season 10-2 is an eminently attainable objective, and one that should be expected. Attaining a BCS bid is more about surviving the war of attrition, not style points, among college football’s top 25 (ask Iowa).
This is an NCAA basketball tournament mentality where all that matters is survive and advance, survive and advance … This Notre Dame football program already received its doctorate in survival training in the months of September and October. Advancing to elite level will be a new set of encyclopedias, one that that the month of November won’t necessarily ascertain.
Unlike Washington State, at least two of Notre Dame’s remaining opponents have a puncher’s chance of pulling the upset — Navy (Nov. 7) and Connecticut (Nov. 21) — but will still be double-digit underdogs.
The unknown variable that could dictate the outcome is turnovers. The law of averages says Notre Dame is due, sooner or later, for a three- or four-turnover game (it hasn’t had any such games since at USC last year) — but that’s okay if Navy or UConn also have some turnovers. But realistically, they will need at least a plus-two, and probably plus-three, advantage in that department to have a chance against the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium.
Navy will arrive wounded after losing at home to Temple, but never undervalue the pride of military men after they’ve had a disappointing setbacks. Anyone who says Navy lacks “a balanced offense” has zero appreciation or understanding of the way a triple option attack can stretch a defense extremely thin horizontally because it has to account for the myriad aspects it presents.
Consequently, it also better exposes a defense to a possibility of giving up some huge pass plays (which Notre Dame has been wont to do on occasion this year) as well. This included an 85-yard touchdown pass by Navy on Sept. 5 at Ohio State, where the Midshipmen were a two-point conversion away in the closing minutes of sending the game into overtime.
If Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs is healthy for the game and the Mids can limit the Irish to nine possessions in regulation time (as it did from 2005-07, rather than the usual 12 or 13), this game could be competitive.
Connecticut is experiencing what Notre Dame did in 2008 — it doesn’t know how to finish. It led North Carolina 10-0 in the fourth quarter but eventually lost 12-10 on a late safety. It had West Virginia on the ropes Oct. 24 before a 56-yard Noel Devine run led to an 11th-hour 24-21 defeat against the Mountaineers. Yesterday, the Huskies scored the go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute remaining to take a 24-21 lead at home against Rutgers — only to get beaten on an 81-yard touchdown strike to Tim Brown (hey, do they also have an Ismail?) with 22 seconds left.
UConn is a program that is reeling in the worst way since the stabbing death of cornerback Jasper Howard outside a school dance on Oct. 18. Next up is a game at top-10 ranked Cincinnati this Saturday — and then two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame. Somewhere in them, the 4-4 Huskies have a dramatic performance waiting in memory of their fallen teammate. Better it be at Cincinnati than Notre Dame.
Prior to the season, I picked three losses for the Irish: at Michigan, USC and at Stanford in the regular-season finale. I believe Jim Harbaugh has the right stuff to thrive as a head coach, and Notre Dame would be one of his marquee victories in 2009 after coming close each of the past two seasons.
Upon further review, though, I made a last-second about-face and picked the Irish because of seeing what Stanford confronts in the three weeks prior to facing Notre Dame: Oregon (Nov. 7), at USC (Nov. 14) and arch rival Cal (Nov. 21). Stanford is a program that is not particularly deep, and to quote Lee Corso, the Cardinal may shoot its … er, all its artillery — mentally and physically — by the time Notre Dame rolls into town. Either that, or it will be even more battle-hardened and dangerous (sort of the way Notre Dame is now).
The game at Pitt (Nov. 14) holds the most intrigue because it has all the makings of a pick ‘em. Idle this weekend and hosting Syracuse this coming Saturday, the Panthers should be 8-1 when Notre Dame comes to town. Similar to Notre Dame, they don’t own a “wow factor” victory, with their most impressive conquest coming at Rutgers. They do possess strong lines on both sides of the ball, one of the nation’s most efficient passers in Bill Stull, a game-breaking wideout with Jonathan Baldwin, and a freshman running back, Dion Lewis, who doesn’t evoke comparisons merely to the talented LeSean McCoy, but maybe to the most hallowed name in Pitt football annals — Tony Dorsett.
There are two areas that might work in Notre Dame’s favor against the Panthers. First, Pitt does not have a good history over the last quarter century of handling success. Every time it seems to knock on the door of prosperity, it has an inexplicable performance, like a loss at home to Bowling Green last year, or after a five-game losing streak, giving up 54 points at home to a Rutgers team that was having problems scoring. Then again, the same can be said of the Irish the past 15 or so years.
Second, Notre Dame has played well at Heinz Field — and the visiting team in this series has won each of the last four meetings. A 1-3 Notre Dame team handled the No. 15 Panthers, led by wideout Larry Fitzgerald in 2003 (20-14), and in Charlie Weis’ debut game, his unranked Irish were nearly flawless in a 42-21 opening-game trouncing of No. 23 Pitt in 2005.
Washington State was an ideal glorified scrimmage to prepare for a manageable yet challenging four-game slate in November. The lone setbacks were backup quarterback Dayne Crist suffering what appeared to be an injury that might sideline him for a while and Jimmy Clausen continuing to battle his turf toe issue. Suddenly, inviting quarterback Evan Sharpley back for a fifth season in 2009 seems propitious. Get wideout Michael Floyd healthy (mentally and physically) and into the lineup, and the Irish should be able to play with anyone.
This Notre Dame team has already displayed that it’s not the same as last year, but the new batch of evidence has to occur in November. The Irish went into a meltdown last November, losing four of their five contests. There needs to be a 180-degree reversal this time.
At the beginning of the season, we said the outcomes of the first three games would dictate what would happen: 3-0 equal BCS, with a possible national title contention; 2-1, a status quo 9-3 season; 1-2, a behind-the-scenes search for a new coach.
We can look at the month of November similarly: 4-0 equals BCS; 3-1 fulfills the status quo role; and 2-2 would rekindle the negative vibes from last November, and possibly even develop into an inferno.
“You remember what you do in November,” Bob Davie often declared during his coaching days at Notre Dame from 1997-2001.
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