On Sunday, Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis was asked about the fact that his team remains unranked in the polls despite a 4-1 record, something that has only happened one other time (last year, oddly enough) in Irish history.
Without calling anyone out individually, Weis made it clear that he believes his team is better than their ranking, or lack thereof.
“If you compare apples to apples, I think that we deserve to be there right with everybody else,” he said.
“I think if you look at some of the other teams that are playing and look at how their games have gone, tell me where the difference is. I can go right up to the top ten and work right on down. You tell me what teams that are in there haven’t had some trouble in their schedule. I mean, almost everybody has.”
Clausen and the Irish have played the role of "Cardiac Kids" well, but it's not impressing voters.
Ain’t that the truth. With very few exceptions, Notre Dame’s 2009 experience isn’t too far off from what most of the nation’s alleged best have achieved thus far. Here’s a team-by-team look at how the teams ranked ahead of the Irish in the projected BCS standings have fared this season:
1. Alabama (Average poll ranking: 3; aggregate computer ranking: 2)
Results: Virginia Tech (34-24); Florida International (40-14); North Texas (53-7); Arkansas (35-7) Verdict: A great neutral-site win to open the year, nothing resembling a test since. As impressive as anyone so far.
2. LSU (Poll average: 4; computer: 1)
Results: at Washington (31-23); Vanderbilt (23-9); Louisiana-Lafayette (31-3); at Mississippi State (30-26); at Georgia (20-13) Verdict: Can you tell a major difference between the above résumé and Notre Dame’s? I sure can’t. The most impressive win thus far is at Georgia, and the Bulldogs are anything but a proven commodity right now.
3. Florida (Poll average: 1; computer: 6)
Results: Charleston Southern (62-3); Troy (56-6); Tennessee (23-13); Kentucky (41-7) Verdict: Check back after the LSU game – the Gators have one 10-point win against a middling Tennessee club and haven’t played anyone else. On this year’s results alone, the jury’s out.
4. Texas (Poll average: 2; computer: 12)
Results: Louisiana-Monroe (59-20); at Wyoming (41-10); Texas Tech (34-24); UTEP (64-7) Verdict: See Florida. One 10-point victory over a decent Tech team, then a bunch of window dressing against also-rans. Not enough evidence to render a judgment.
5. Boise State (Poll average: 5.5; computer: 4)
Results: Oregon (19-8); Miami (Ohio) (48-0); at Fresno State (51-34); at Bowling Green (49-14); Cal-Davis (34-16) Verdict: Thanks to its inflated preseason ranking, the Broncos will be able to ride a home win over Oregon all the way to a BCS bowl – maybe even the title game – provided it navigates the remainder of its laughable schedule without a loss.
6. Virginia Tech (Poll average: 5.5; computer: 5)
Results: Alabama (L, 24-34); Marshall (52-10); Nebraska (16-15); Miami (Fla.) (31-7); at Duke (34-26) Verdict: That last game is cause for pause, but based on the relatively tough schedule thus far, the Hokies have a strong case as the nation’s top one-loss team.
7. USC (Poll average: 7; computer: T-10)
Results: San Jose State (56-3); at Ohio State (18-15); at Washington (L, 13-16); Washington State (27-6); at California (30-3) Verdict: The four wins are generally impressive, even if we’re still not sure how good Ohio State is. The one loss is a head-scratcher, but USC’s losses usually are.
8. Cincinnati (Poll average: 9.5; computer: 9)
Results: at Rutgers (47-15); SE Missouri State (70-3); at Oregon State (28-20); Fresno State (28-20); at Miami (Ohio) (37-13) Verdict: Scores are impressive. Opponents, not so much. Jury is still out.
9. Iowa (Poll average: 12.5; computer: 3)
Results: Northern Iowa (17-16); Iowa State (35-3); Arizona (27-17); at Penn State (21-10); Arkansas State (24-21) Verdict: Could be a sheep in wolf’s clothing. The Hawkeyes are riding one big win at State College – and as we’ll see, the Nittany Lions are equally suspect.
10. Ohio State (Poll average: 8; computer: 15)
Results: Navy (31-27); USC (L, 15-18); at Toledo (38-0); Illinois (30-0); at Indiana (33-14) Verdict: A home loss is the most impressive result thus far, hardly the stuff that top-10 teams are made of.
11. TCU (Poll average: 9.5; computer: 14)
Results: at Virginia (30-14); Texas State (56-21); at Clemson (14-10); SMU (39-14) Verdict: Like Boise State, the Horned Frogs are riding reputation and a cakewalk schedule as far as they can. We may never find out whether or not this team is actually good.
12. Miami (Fla.) (Poll average: 11.5; computer: 7)
Results: at Florida State (38-34); Georgia Tech (33-17); at Virginia Tech (L, 7-31); Oklahoma (21-20) Verdict: Props due for taking on all comers – no one’s played a tougher slate so far. But inspection reveals plenty. Georgia Tech was playing on four days’ rest, while Miami had a bye week. Oklahoma was minus Sam Bradford. Florida State is a mess. That leaves one pretty ugly loss. The ’Canes certainly merit a decent ranking right now – but I’m skeptical about their ability to hang onto it.
13. Oregon (Poll average: 16; computer: 13)
Results: at Boise State (L, 8-19); Purdue (38-36); Utah (31-24); California (42-3); Washington State (52-6) Verdict: A ranking built entirely on the rout of Cal, who has since been completely exposed as a paper tiger. Big divide between the first three games and the last two – will the real Ducks please stand up?
14. Auburn (Poll average: 19; computer: 8)
Results: Louisiana Tech (37-13); Mississippi State (49-24); West Virginia (41-30); Ball State (54-30); at Tennessee (26-22) Verdict: No less impressive than Florida or Texas so far, really…but the real tests are yet to come.
15. Penn State (Poll average: 12.5; computer: T-24)
Results: Akron (31-7); Syracuse (28-7); Temple (31-6); Iowa (L, 10-21); at Illinois (35-17) Verdict: The next person to offer a valid explanation for why Penn State is ranked in the top 15 will be the first. The much-ridiculed Irish schedule looks like a death sentence compared to this.
16. Kansas (Poll average: 15.5; computer: 21) Results: North Colorado (49-3); at UTEP (34-7); Duke (44-16); Southern Miss (35-28) Verdict: How can you tell? No real opponents, no road games. I’m not sold.
Weis and the Irish have an opportunity to earn some national respect in two weeks when they host USC.
17. Oklahoma State (Poll average: 13.5; computer: unranked) Results: Georgia (24-10); Houston (L, 35-45); Rice (41-24); Grambling (56-6) Verdict: Still riding the win over Georgia, who still hasn’t proven anything. No road games yet, either. There’s a reason the Cowboys aren’t ranked by any of the BCS computers.
18. Wisconsin (Poll average: 25; computer: 10) Results: Northern Illinois (28-20); Fresno State (34-31); Wofford (44-14); Michigan State (38-30); at Minnesota (31-28) Verdict: Computers love the Badgers (three of the five have them in the top 5), polls don’t. For once, the polls could be right. Tough to tell until Wisco actually plays someone.
19. Georgia Tech (Poll average: 22.5; computer: 16) Results: Jacksonville State (37-17); Clemson (30-27); at Miami (Fla.) (L, 33-17); North Carolina (24-7); at Mississippi State (42-31) Verdict: The Miami loss didn’t hurt them much – a short-rest road loss to a ranked team shouldn’t. Tech’s résumé so far stacks up against pretty much every other one-loss team.
20. Ole Miss (Poll average: 17; computer: not ranked) Results: at Memphis (45-14); Southeast Louisiana (52-6); at South Carolina (L, 10-16); at Vanderbilt (23-7) Verdict: This is not a track record that has you ranked unless you were there to begin with. The Rebels are riding preseason hype and nothing else at this point.
21. Missouri (Poll average: 20.5; computer: 20) Results: at Illinois (37-9); Bowling Green (27-20); Furman (52-12); at Nevada (31-21) Verdict: Unbeaten, yes. Tested? Not really. And does that last opponent look familiar?
22. BYU (Poll average: 18.5; computer: unranked) Results: at Oklahoma (14-13); at Tulane (54-3); Florida State (L, 28-54); Colorado State (42-23); Utah State (35-17) Verdict: The opening win at Oklahoma does a fine job of masking a horrible home loss to FSU – have the Cougars really done anything but injure Bradford?
23. Oklahoma (Poll average: 20.5; computer: unranked) Results: BYU (L, 13-14); Idaho State (64-0); Tulsa (45-0); at Miami (Fla.) (L, 20-21) Verdict: See Ole Miss. If the Sooners weren’t a preseason top-5 team, they wouldn’t be within shouting distance of the top 25 right now. At least the computers aren’t fooled.
24. South Florida (Poll average: 24; computer: T-22) Results: Wofford (40-7); at Western Kentucky (35-13); Charleston Southern (59-0); at Florida State (17-7); at Syracuse (34-20) Verdict: Florida State is by far your best win? Someone’s about to be exposed…
25. Nebraska (Poll average: 21.5; computer: unranked) Results: Florida Atlantic (49-3); Arkansas State (38-9); at Virginia Tech (L, 15-16); Louisiana-Lafayette (55-0) Verdict: Best win is a close loss. Too tough to tell what we’ve got here.
26. Georgia (Poll average: 26.5; computer: T-22) Results: at Oklahoma State (L, 10-24); South Carolina (41-37); at Arkansas (52-41); Arizona State (20-17); LSU (L, 13-20) Verdict: Three close wins over mediocre teams and two losses to good ones (if you consider Oklahoma State good, anyway). Sound familiar? If not, it’s because the Irish don’t have two losses.
27. Stanford (Poll average: 30; computer: 18) Results: Washington State (39-13); at Wake Forest (L, 17-24); San Jose State (42-17); Washington (34-14); UCLA (24-16) Verdict: I remain skeptical. The beauty of it is that at least in this case, we’ll get to find out firsthand.
Notre Dame checks in at 28 – but its aggregate computer ranking is 19. Is that number more accurate? When you measure the 2009 performance of the Irish against the 2009 performance of the teams above, I’d argue that 19th would be a much more appropriate standing right now, even speaking conservatively.
The five BCS-used computer rankings currently out have Notre Dame rated more highly than Penn State, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, BYU, Oklahoma, South Florida, Georgia and Nebraska. I’d have to agree with the machines on all of those, and I’d at least add Stanford and Oregon to that pile.
Beyond that, there are plenty of other teams I’d argue the Irish against and have a decent case – but I’ll err on the conservative side for now. Why? Because we just don’t know enough yet – which is why even having polls at all this early in the year makes very little sense, and why I’m not overly concerned about Notre Dame being unranked right now. It’ll all sort itself out in due time. Well, kind of.
(Coming up next – a closer look at the inherent flaws in the BCS ranking system, including the large chasm between how the polls and the computers value certain teams and the continued influence of preseason polls.)
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