One of the most entertaining, and traditionally high-scoring rivalries in the Big East renews Saturday as the 12-4 (3-2) Irish travel to the Carrier Dome to take on the 16-2 (4-1) Orange from Syracuse.
Below is a closer look at the key matchups between the Fighting Irish and the Orange:
Syracuse Season Review: Record: 16-2 Big East Record: 4-1 (at Georgetown) NCAA Tournament Quality Wins: at Florida; Kansas (neutral, though in Missouri); at Memphis Best Win: at Memphis NCAA Bubble Losses: None Blots on the Orange NCAA Resume: a home loss to Cleveland State, 72-69, courtesy of a three-quarter court shot that beat the buzzer The Last Time: Notre Dame defeated Syracuse 94-87 last February at the Joyce Center as Irish sharp-shooter Kyle McAlarney exploded for 30 points including a 9-13 effort from behind the arc. The Orange won 11 of 13 meetings from 2000 through 2006, but the Irish have won three straight, including their last trip to the Carrier Dome in 2007, 103-91, and later that season in the Big East tournament, prevailing 89-83. Likewise, Notre Dame had success vs. the Orange(men, at the time) at the Carrier Dome in the 90s, winning three of five meetings despite entering the contest as a decisive underdog in four of those five matchups.
McAlarney, making his first trip to the Carrier Dome, hung 30 on the Orange in their last meeting.
Top Players and Likely Matchups (The Orange has six experienced starters):
Forward – Paul Harris: The powerful junior showcases a game reminiscent of a mid 80s NBA power forward, an Old School player in a homogenized era of shooters and leapers at the forward position. Harris, the Orange’s third-leading scorer and top rebounder, is an excellent mid-range shooter that rarely attempts to extend his range beyond the arc. At 6’4” 230 lbs., the savvy Harris is too strong for any Irish player not named “Harangody” but the Notre Dame big man will have to use his muscle vs. the rest of the Orange front line options. Though the Irish will likely employ a zone for at least half of the afternoon, expect senior Zach Hillesland to use his five-inch height advantage when matched up vs. the much-improved Harris, a player that excelled in the middle of the Irish zone last season at the Joyce Center. Harris, like the rest of the Orange, is playing fewer minutes this season (from 36 minutes per game down to about 29) and (a likely result) is shooting a better overall percentage, up from 46 percent in 2008 to over 54 percent this year. Harris has true NBA strength, tremendous body control, and is yet another difficult forward matchup for the slight Irish front line.
Advantage: Harris without question
Guard– Andy Rautins: The junior bomber had a six-game run shooting over 57 percent from beyond the arc and averaging more than 21 ppg. In the process, but that ended last week with a three-point effort vs. Rutgers (a Syracuse road victory) and with a knee injury (reportedly a sprain or bruise) in the Orange loss Wednesday night at Georgetown. Rautins missed the entire 2007-08 season with a torn ACL in his left knee (the same knee) and his status for the matchup with the Irish is in doubt. He has true NBA range and must be accounted for on every offensive series.
Advantage: A healthy Rautins is a tough cover, but one which Ryan Ayers could handle if he remained disciplined throughout the contest.
Center– Arinze Onuaku: A 6’9” 275-pound redshirt junior is second in the nation in field goal percentage due largely to two factors: he fights for position and has a point guard setting him up for easy baskets (more on that below). Onuaku has a huge frame and is extremely difficult to move once he establishes position on the low block. He must be kept out of the lane and not allowed to use his pet move: a slow, deliberate two or three dribbles as he moves to his right to better his position in the lane, where he is adept at finishing with both hands. Onuaku is a much-improved player that hurt the Irish with 19 points and 12 boards in last February’s matchup.
Advantage: Onuaku will have his hands full with Harangody at the other end, but this matchup won’t be a picnic for Big Luke, either. The Irish will need to double-down effectively when Onuaku puts the ball on the floor, and also receive quality defensive minutes from Luke Zeller, who can contain, though not stop Onuaku with solid defensive position.
Forward – Rick Jackson: A lefty, Jackson is reliant upon to things to score in the post: a variety of fakes that always end up with a shot over his right shoulder (left hand) and easy dunks courtesy of a dynamic point guar. Jackson has posted double figures in eight games this season and played a strong game vs. the Hoyas in Georgetown, finishing with 17 points, the bulk of which came after Rautins injured his leg mid-way through the first half.
Advantage: Harangody is every bit his physical equal and he’ll torch Jackson if they’re matched up one-on-one, but Jackson is likely too strong for Hillesland. Both Jackson and Harris must be accounted for on the offensive glass when the Irish go zone defensively.
Guard – Eric Devendorf: Devendorf is a wild-card (off the court as well), and missed most the 2008 Big East campaign with a torn ACL. He’s second on the squad in scoring, averaging more than 14 points per contest, but is the type of player that is easily capable of a 25-point outburst on a given night. Devendorf had recently been the Orange’s sixth-man, and was suspended for two games in late December for an off-the-court incident. The key to his game is the presence of the league’s best point guard, Jonny Flynn (below) as Devendorf was a dangerous, but wildly inconsistent floor leader as the team’s point guard in 2006-07. He’ll likely be matched with Kyle McAlarney throughout the evening when either team employs its man-to-man attack. (Devendorf and Tory Jackson played within 10 minutes of each other as Jackson is from Saginaw and Devendorf hails from Bay City (Michigan).
Advantage: To the offense, for both Devendorf and McAlarney, by knockout
Guard – Jonny Flynn: As a freshman in 2008, Flynn led the Big East in minutes played. Now he simply leads the Orange in scoring, assists, minutes played and every time the team brings the ball down the court offensively. He’s a gifted passer with blazing speed, a “defense to offense” machine, in that Flynn turns an opponent’s turnover into an advantage break better than anyone in the Conference. Flynn is one of the best I’ve seen this season at reading the defense and attacking its weakness on a given play. He drills shots from beyond the arc off the dribble, is a fantastic, flashy ball handler, and is an NBA scout’s dream. He has an uncanny feel for the game and will give the Irish fits running the Syracuse high pick-and-roll vs. man-to-man. Tory Jackson is the only viable matchup vs. Flynn and he’ll have his hands full.
Advantage: Flynn, but Jackson is more than capable of rising to the occasion. Flynn is a mouthy player (hard to tell if its good-natured or not on television) and Jackson will have to keep his cool as the Syracuse leader will make plays and let the opponent know about it after-the-fact.
Battle of the Benches:
If Rautins is unable to play, the Orange bench advantage is lessened significantly (as Devendorf moves into the starting lineup).
The Orange are a six-starter team. The Irish are (currently) a six-man team. Therein lies the difference. Syracuse will bring former starter Kristof Ongenaet off the bench for 10-12 minutes; freshman forward Kris Joseph for nearly 20 minutes; and Mookie Jones is a situational player that could see some time spelling Devendorft (assuming Rautins can’t play) as Jones has range beyond the arc.
Notre Dame can remain a six-man team if Zeller can deliver 25 quality minutes per night, allowing the Iron Five: Harangody, K-Mac, Jackson, Hillesland, and Ayers to each fall between the 31-36 minute range.
If Zeller can’t consistently contribute these valuable minutes (he has over the last three games) than Head Coach Mike Brey will have to regain confidence in junior guard Jonathan Peoples, an experienced player who has seen a decided decrease in playing time since the loss at St. Johns (in which he was 3-3 in the first half with seven points). Peoples struggled mightily in limited minutes vs. the Louisville pressure last Monday Night, but he won’t see that same relentless attack vs. the Orange.
Sophomore Tyrone Nash is needed but rarely plays Conference minutes while redshirt sophomore Carleton Scott is athletic but likely overmatched with zero meaningful court appearances under his belt as of January 17 2009.
Matchups – The Bottom Line:
Syracuse stuck with its patented zone scheme for far too long in last year’s matchup, and K-Mac toyed with them from beyond the arc. Expect the Orange to play man early (as they did vs. Rutgers last week) and mix in an aggressive zone focusing on Irish shooters Ayers and McAlarney while Onuaku remains a rock down low.
The Irish can exploit this zone if A.) McAlarney gets any looks, and more consistently B.) If Zach Hillesland can receive the ball in the high post, as he’ll have the option of dumping the ball low to Harangody or kicking out to Ayers/McAlarney on the opposite wings.
The Irish will allow points today…at least 85 of them. The Orange can score, and are coming off their first Big East defeat this season after a Wednesday beating at Georgetown so you’ll likely see a focused group from the opening tip.
Coach Brey’s Ironmen have difficult matchups across the board in both man-to-man and in their (very soft) 2-3 zone. The Irish will have to score consistently and earn timely defensive stops to leave the Carrier Dome with a W. Fortunately, Saturday’s pace will be nothing like that of last Monday’s Louisville contest, so a shallow bench won’t shouldn’t be this matchup’s deciding factor.
The Orange are the Big East’s most consistent scoring team, with a nearly perfect mix of penetration (Flynn); post play (Onuaku and Jackson); outside shooting (Rautins and Devendorf); and the rare commodity of a top-tier middle game (Harris). They’re big, fast, athletic, and play well together.
Notre Dame must attack the vulnerable middle and the sometimes lazy back line of the Syracuse zone, as Syracuse defenders are well-schooled at trailing a predictable, pass-around-the-arc offensive attack. But the Orange can lose focus and, in keeping with basketball custom over the last 25 years, struggle from the free throw line. The Orange have traditionally had trouble vs. an Irish attack that features a seemingly endless supply of shooters, but usually prevail in the end with superior athleticism (Coleman/Owens/Moten/Anthony/Warrick) and clutch outside shooting of their own (Gerry McNamara).
I expect the same scenario to play out Saturday at the Carrier Dome, with the Irish dropping a 90-84 decision, and Paul Harris joining the growing and distinguished list of opposing forwards to have career games vs. the 2009 Irish.
Six Individual Keys:
• Luke Zeller must hit open shots. He’s played hard in three consecutive Big East contests and showed consistent effort in terms of rebounding and defensive position. Now he has to knock down shots as advertised.
• Staying in front of the explosive Flynn should be job No. 1 for Tory Jackson, Saturday. Flynn can burn opponents in many ways, but Jackson should take his chances vs. Flynn from the outside rather than challenge him consistently off the dribble.
• Keep on firing Kyle McAlarney. McAlarney should remain selfish through Bookstore Basketball this April. The Irish cannot contend vs. the big dogs in this Conference without him.
• There’s only one form of acceptable defensive foul from Luke Harangody today (or in the near future): A challenge at the rim. The All American simply must stop reaching and gambling defensively and picking up cheap fouls in the process.
• The ideal game from Ryan Ayers? Not 18 points on six three-pointers, rather: 13 points; 7 rebounds; 2 steals; at least twice as many tipped balls as steals; moving his feet defensively; and most importantly, four or possibly five aggressive fouls.
• Zach Hillesland: Focus on finishing and boxing out the rugged Harris
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