There is an eerie sense of déjà vu while writing this column in the wee hours of Nov. 30, shortly after Notre Dame’s loss at USC.
Four years earlier on Nov. 30 – two days after a 41-10 loss at USC to end the regular season – I learned of the ouster of third-year head coach Tyrone Willingham.
This time I’m wondering, before we go to press at 6 a.m. on Nov. 30, if this will be our final edition with Charlie Weis still holding the “head coach” title.
Over the last month of the 2004 and 2008 campaigns, the parallels between Willingham’s third season and Weis’ fourth merit pause:
• In 2004, the Irish held a 13-point lead at home (20-7) against a Big East foe (Boston College), only to yield the game-winning TD pass with 54 seconds left to fall behind 24-23. Notre Dame’s desperate field-goal attempt from 55 yards on the final play fell short.
In 2008, Notre Dame had a similar 13-point cushion (23-10) versus a more hapless Big East opponent (Syracuse), surrendered the winning scoring pass with 42 seconds remaining, and missed a 53-yard field-goal attempt on the final play in another 24-23 setback.
Can Notre Dame really keep Weis for a fifth season despite firing Willingham after a third with what's now a better win percentage?
• In November of 2004, the Irish lost at home by three points to Pitt (41-38) when the Panther kicker nailed a 32-yard field goal with one second left.
In November of 2008, Notre Dame lost another three-point decision at home to Pitt (36-33), with a short field goal on the final play of the fourth overtime the coup de grace.
• That November, Willingham labeled the six-win campaign as successful because it was “a winning record.”
This November, Weis cited his six-win squad as “decent” and evidence of the arrow pointing up. That is how low the bar has become the past decade.
• Willingham in 2004 and Weis in 2008 had the bulk of star power on the roster in their younger classes, including sophomore quarterbacks in Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen. Both anticipated an appreciable turnaround the following season.
• The 2004 regular season concluded with a 41-10 slaughter at USC, the third consecutive year the Trojans trounced the Irish by 31 points.
The 2008 regular season was capped with a 38-3 drubbing in Los Angeles. That means Notre Dame has lost its last three contests to USC by 93 points – or a 31-point average, just like Willingham.
• Willingham’s winning percentage after leaving that finale at USC was .583 (21-15).
Weis’ winning percentage entering the Coliseum this year also was .583 (28-20) – but fell to .571.
Now what?
Vilified nationally by axing Willingham after just three years, Notre Dame likely would be castigated just as much for keeping Weis after four.
When Bob Davie was fired on the morning after defeating Purdue 24-18 on Dec. 1, 2001, he asked athletics director Kevin White why.
“We’ve lost credibility,” White replied.
What credibility can be pointed to today?
Two Differences
There are two factors Weis has going for him that Willingham didn’t. One is the recruiting trajectory, and the other is the specter of Urban Meyer, or the lack of it.
In 2004, Meyer, an assistant for the Irish from 1996-2000, was viewed as the once-in-a-generation hire (Leahy ’41, Parseghian ’63, Holtz ’85, Meyer ’04) – and even outgoing Notre Dame president Rev. Edward “Monk” Malloy C.S.C. indirectly referred to him as the “Messiah Coach” with a tinge of sarcasm. With a Notre Dame clause in Meyer’s contract, it was Notre Dame’s moment to carpe diem.
Florida swooped in instead, and the realization of how disinterested other coaches ostensibly were in the Notre Dame position at the time was staggering.
Is there a Messiah Coach now? A grand-slam hire, a solo shot, a double into the gap…or maybe even a single with a runner in scoring position?
Notre Dame’s senior administration in 2004 believed it had the proverbial gun waiting in the restroom (reference The Godfather scene), but discovered otherwise.
What ammunition is in place now?
Athletics director Jack Swarbrick has barely been 100 days into his administration, yet might be saddled with a decision that could define his legacy. Is he fully armed at this time?
Or is it more prudent to wait, and give Weis one more chance to make it right in 2009 with an even more favorable slate? My guess is Weis will be back, mainly because exit strategies appear askew. All bets are off if a premier coach expressed interest.
God forgive me for thinking like this, but in 1984, Gerry Faust’s fourth season, I wanted him out. I didn’t care who, I didn’t care what, he had to go, in my opinion – and that was after beating LSU, Penn State and USC. However, if that aspiration of mine would have come true, Lou Holtz would not have been available because he first had to lead Minnesota to a bowl. He couldn’t do that in his first year while improving the team from 1-10 to 4-7, but by 1985 he had the Golden Gophers in a bowl and was free to pursue the Notre Dame job.
Timing, timing, timing.
Tasting Failure
Previous head-coaching experience once again is again becoming a popular demand amongst Irish faithful.
But I’ve always believed experiencing failure also should be a prerequisite for this job, from Ara Parseghian going through an 0-9 season at Northwestern and working in adverse conditions, to Dan Devine getting fired at Green Bay and finishing 5-6 in his last year at Missouri, to Holtz getting fired at Arkansas and undertaking several major overhauls at other places.
In other words, their teeth were cut many times over before arriving at Notre Dame, and that’s crucial because the scrutiny here can be so daunting.
Holtz told the story of once meeting a titan of industry and asking him why he was so successful.
“I make good decisions,” he replied.
“Well, how is it you’re able to make good decisions?” Holtz followed up.
“Because I made my share of bad decisions,” came the answer.
The issue is can you still learn when your on-the-job training occurs at Notre Dame, or does the damage of losses such as the ones at home to Navy, Air Force or Syracuse, among others, become too irreparable to overcome?
Another scenario: Weis returns in 2009 and finishes at least 9-3 with an even more veteran team. When you go from 3-9, to 6-6 to 9-3, that proverbial arrow still points up.
Last year at this time, I wrote that Weis was in a crater that might be too deep dig out from, yet everyone deserves a mulligan, or clunker (LSU fans should take note with Les Miles’ 7-5 mark this year).
My guess is if a decision is made to change leadership, the exit strategy would include no more travels across the country with people tracking on the Internet at what site the Notre Dame jet is today. When Faust announced on a 1985 Tuesday his resignation, Holtz was announced as the replacement the following day. That was a plan that was in place for a couple of years.
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