Schedule Summary

After providing an overview of the 12 Notre Dame opponents over the past two weeks, it’s time to categorize the degree of difficulty. Usually, they fall into three groups: musts, bubbles and steals.

On the plus side for the Irish, the lone opponent one can say (from a preseason perspective) is a clear, prohibitive favorite against Charlie Weis and Co. is USC. On the concern side is there are at least a half-dozen foes who are more than capable of defeating Notre Dame.

There has to be a balanced perspective when transferring last year’s 3-9 implosion into 2008. On one hand, the Irish team was so egregiously inept and, on occasion, unprepared, it would be foolish to pull a “Dallas” and say the previous year was just all a nightmare. On the other, pride and concentration should be assets to a program such as Notre Dame, which has a long tradition of rebounding even if the head coach is under fire.

Think about the worst seasons in the program’s history under one coach – and responding with conviction the next year under the same coach: Terry Brennan’s 2-8 team in 1956 was 7-3 and finished No. 10 a year later, highlighted by ending Oklahoma’s 47-game winning streak (one year after losing at home to the Sooners, 40-0).

Joe Kuharich’s 1960 squad finished 2-8, but the next year it began the season 3-0 with wins against Oklahoma, Purdue and USC, all of which had College Football Hall of Fame coaches. Later, it upset top-10 ranked Syracuse.

Gerry Faust’s 5-6 debut in 1981 was followed by opening 4-0, with victories over Michigan and Miami, teams that had defeated Notre Dame by scores of 25-7 and 37-15 the previous year. The Irish also moved to 6-1-1 and possible national title discussion after upsetting No. 1 Pitt.

Under Bob Davie, the Irish improved from 5-7 in his third season (1999) to a 9-2 regular season – two plays away from 11-0 – the next year.

Even with Tyrone Willingham, the Irish responded from a 5-7 season in 2003 with a couple of dramatic victories against Michigan and Tennessee in 2004, but heart-wrenching losses at home to Boston College and Pitt cost him his job.

Weis faces a similar situation as those predecessors (we don’t include going from 2-7 in 1963 to 9-1 in 1964 because that’s two different coaches), and you should definitely count on improvement and perhaps winning games where they might not be the favorite. But how much better will the record be?

Our stance all along is that if Notre Dame can’t go 8-4 this year, there is a problem with the brain trust. Here’s our breakdown of the musts, bubble and steals, going from supposedly weakest foes to strongest:

Musts
If the Irish can’t go 5-0 here…Houston, we have a problem!

12) San Diego State (4-8) – Lost star QB Kevin O’Connell, top two receivers, top two rushers and three offensive linemen. Plus, a new kicker, punter and long snapper must be found, and out of 115 teams the defense was 118th against the run (241.5 yards per game) and 115th overall (498.2).

11) Syracuse (2-10) – Greg Robinson is 7-28 in three seasons, and eight of the losses last year were by at least three TDs. The rushing attack was the nation’s worst (2.01 yards per carry), aided by 54 sacks of Orange QBs (only Notre Dame was sacked more often, with 58).

10) Stanford (4-8) – This will be the Cardinal’s fourth road game in six weeks. They have the most starters back among Irish opponents – but that’s from a unit that finished 107th in total offense and 97th in total defense, plus the kicker and punter need to be replaced. If Stanford couldn’t topple Notre Dame last year at home, it might have a greater problem achieving it on the road.

9) At Navy (8-5) – Outstanding backfield and running attack…but should the Midshipmen really defeat Notre Dame two years in a row after losing 43 straight? We felt if any Navy coach could do it, it would be Paul Johnson, but now he’s at Georgia Tech.

8) Purdue (8-5) – QB Curtis Painter poses a threat, but he lost a plethora of big-play targets, including first-round pick Dustin Keller at tight end, Dorien Bryant and Selwyn Lymon. The defense has had issues the past several years, including yielding 48 points to Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl. The Boilermakers have won once in their last 15 trips to Notre Dame Stadium.

Bubbles
We categorize these five games as “pick ‘em.” A 3-2 mark would get you to the realistic target of eight wins.

7) At Washington (4-9) – Notre Dame has two weeks, but count on the Huskies to be at an emotional peak for this contest, similar to last year’s 27-24 loss to USC at home, at night. Tyrone Willingham is only 11-25, yet QB Jake Locker provides a bona fide “puncher’s chance.” Road games at night in charged atmospheres are never an easy proposition.

6) At North Carolina (4-8) – Butch Davis infuses hope into a program that is 23-48 the past six years. Youth star power permeates both rosters, and the programs are deemed “a year away” from becoming a major player. The makings of a trap game on the road are there. We anticipate the Tar Heels, like Washington, will have this as one of the three games on their schedule with peak emotional fervor.

5) At Boston College (11-3) – Sixteen fifth-year seniors have departed, most notably QB Matt Ryan. The defensive front seven is among the two or three best the Irish will confront, and the venue is always hostile. Nevertheless, if Notre Dame truly wants to regain credibility, it can’t lose a sixth straight to the Eagles, who have a habit of saving their best game for the Irish.

4) Pitt (5-7) – Next to top-5-ranked USC, Pitt seems to be the only other 2008 Irish foe mentioned most in the top 25. Defense is the bedrock, especially after the stunning 13-9 win in the regular-season finale last year at No. 2 West Virginia. The skill positions on offense also have promise, led by TB LeSean McCoy. Still, Dave Wannstedt (16-19 in three years) must start delivering.

3) Michigan (9-4) – Yes, the Irish were crushed 38-0 last year – but they also lost 38-0 in 2003 and beat the Wolverines the next year at home with a sophomore QB (Brady Quinn) and freshman running back (Darius Walker). Michigan has more talent than many might give them credit for, but the offense is in a dramatic state of flux with Rich Rodriguez’s spread attack. No Irish opponent has to replace more on offense while dealing with a dramatic philosophical adjustment.

Steals
If Notre Dame beats San Diego State and Michigan for a 2-0 start, a potential BCS bid could hinge on these outcomes:

2) At Michigan State (7-6) – Remarkably, the road team has won seven straight in this series. We don’t think MSU is more talented than Michigan, but timing is everything. This is always a challenge the week after an emotionally-charged meeting with Michigan, and a veteran Irish team needed an amazing rally at Spartan Stadium in 2006 to emerge with a 40-37 triumph. MSU has proven commodities at quarterback (Brian Hoyer) and running back (Javon Ringer), strong special teams, and head coach Mark Dantonio’s forte is defense.

1) At USC (11-2) – The Trojans have outscored Notre Dame 246-92 the past six years, or an average of about 41-15, and is projected to finish in the top 4 a seventh straight year.