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For the teams that have struggled through the season, the conference tournaments represent one final chance to put together a hot streak and sneak into the NCAA Tournament, where almost anything can happen.
The parity level in the women’s game, however, isn’t quite what it is on the men’s side just yet, though – so while there is still the occasional Cinderella story, you probably won’t see one at this week’s Big East Championships in Hartford, Conn., where the big dogs will simply be trying to play up into a higher NCAA seed.
Notre Dame is one of at least seven Big East teams already making NCAA Tournament reservations. The Irish are essentially assured of a 13th straight appearance in the field of 64, meaning that this weekend is just about padding the profile just a little bit more. After the upset loss to St. John’s on Monday, a few wins would certainly help.
ESPN.com had Notre Dame as a No. 3 seed in the NCAAs before that setback, but the analysts there aren’t ruling out the possibility of the team holding that spot barring a premature exit this weekend.
 “I don’t have a problem with them being a No. 3 seed, maybe a No. 4,” said longtime college coach Carolyn Peck. She added that the primary issue with the Irish may be the loss of freshman Devereaux Peters to an ACL tear last month (though they are 5-2 since that injury, with one of those losses coming by just six points at No. 5 Rutgers).
Senior Charel Allen leads a balanced offensive attack for the Irish at 14.4 points per game, while Ashley Barlow (11.7) and Lindsay Schrader (10.6) both average in double digits. Freshman forward Becca Bruszewski, a key figure off the bench, sat out a week with a broken bone in her left hand, but she played 11 minutes against SJU and is expected to be ready to go.
Notre Dame has ranked among the NCAA’s top 25 all season long in scoring (77.3 ppg), scoring margin (+16.7), assists (16.1), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.1) and steals (1.18). The Irish also were the Big East’s runaway leader in turnover margin at +7.3 (the NCAA doesn’t keep that stat officially). They’ve made a living off of creating mistakes while limiting their own, and they’ll hope to continue that trend through the weekend.
Connecticut, Rutgers, West Virginia, Louisville, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are likely assured of joining the Fighting Irish in the bracket, with DePaul projected to join those teams in the field of 64 heading into the weekend. Marquette, which still has an outside shot of making the cut, faces the Blue Demons in the opening round.
Despite a .500 league mark and an RPI ranking in the 40s, ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme believes that DePaul is fairly safe.
“I don’t really see them falling out,” Creme said of the top eight Big East teams. “It would have to take the earth moving in a way we’ve never seen before...Marquette has to do a lot more than simply win one game...(and) I don’t think they would necessarily bump DePaul out.”
St. John’s, one of the league’s hotter teams down the stretch, would almost assuredly need to run the table to earn an NCAA bid.
Here’s a quick look at the matchups:
First Round
Saturday, March 8
No. 5 Pittsburgh (20-9, 10-6) vs. No. 12 Villanova (15-14, 5-11), noon
The Panthers were reeling, losing six of eight before Monday’s blowout win over Georgetown (which knocked the Hoyas out of the tourney via tiebreaker). Much of that struggle can be attributed to the health of center Marcedes Walker, who appears to be at least close to 100 percent now.
Pitt won the regular-season meeting with ’Nova, 72-63, just before their skid started – and given that the Wildcats closed their schedule by losing four in a row, a similar result should be expected. Notre Dame will get the winner of this one.
Prediction: Pitt 71, Villanova 58
No. 8 Marquette (16-13, 8-8) vs. No. 9 DePaul (19-10, 8-8)
Perhaps the most important game of the weekend in terms of NCAA Tournament hopes, with each team very much on the bubble. The Blue Demons, one of the nation’s top-scoring teams, has played the tougher schedule and appears to be in the field of 64 for now, but it can’t afford a loss to a hungry group of Golden Eagles, a team that may need two victories this weekend to punch a dance ticket.
Marquette won a slowed-down affair on its home court, 65-56, when the two teams met in January. If DePaul can’t do a better job of speeding the game up, Doug Bruno’s team might be very uneasy come Selection Sunday. The winner draws top-seeded UConn, which needed a miracle to escape Chicago with a win last week.
Prediction: DePaul 72, Marquette 69
No. 7 Louisville (21-8, 10-6) vs. No. 10 St. John’s (16-13, 7-9)
Another interesting matchup, simply because the Red Storm comes in hot and clinging to the slim hope of an NCAA bid. They certainly helped their cause with Monday’s upset win over Notre Dame, but the Johnnies realistically need at least two wins, if not a trip to the final, to make it happen. The good news? Louisville’s spot in the field of 64 is already set, so the Cardinals could be caught sleeping.
The bad news? Louisville plastered SJU, 96-74, in New York on Feb. 13 and has won eight of nine coming in, with the lone loss on the road to West Virginia. It’ll take some serious work for the underdog to advance, but it’s certainly possible.
Prediction: Louisville 81, St. John’s 74
No. 6 Syracuse (21-7, 10-6) vs. No. 11 South Florida (15-14, 5-11)
The Orange had been on their heels a bit during the final weeks, losing three of five before laying a beating on No. 3 seed West Virginia in Monday’s regular-season finale. A rematch of that game is possible if Syracuse can hold off the feisty Bulls, who got in at the last minute by beating Marquette on Monday and using the tiebreakers to steal Georgetown’s spot.
These two clubs battled early in the conference slate, with the Orange claiming a 67-60 road win back on Jan. 12. USF has been inconsistent, but it has certainly picked it up in the last week (the Bulls also beat Pitt last weekend) and is capable of the upset.
Prediction: USF 66, Syracuse 65
Quarterfinals
Sunday, March 9 (all on ESPNU)
No. 4 Notre Dame (23-7, 11-5) vs. Pitt-Villanova winner
The Irish may be the bye team least likely to get caught napping – Muffet McGraw won’t let a repeat of the St. John’s loss happen. Notre Dame beat both of its potential opponents by double digits, although both were at the Joyce Center (and with Devereaux Peters, who suffered her season-ending injury in the second half of the Pitt game). Expect a tight battle most of the way, but the Irish will be too hungry coming off of a bitter upset loss just hours after cracking the AP’s top 10 for the first time this season.
Prediction: Notre Dame 79, Pitt 72
No. 1 Connecticut (29-1, 15-1) vs. Marquette-DePaul winner
The last thing the Huskies probably want to see is another tilt with the Blue Demons – or is it the first thing they want? Likely national freshman of the year Maya Moore saved UConn in a 77-76 squeaker last Saturday – will it be a case of the nation’s number one team proving the close game was a fluke, or can DePaul get revenge? Either way, if that is the matchup, expect a very high-scoring affair.
Prediction: UConn 89, DePaul 82
No. 2 Rutgers (24-5, 14-2) vs. Louisville-St. John’s winner
The Scarlet Knights had a shot at the regular-season crown, but lost its rematch with UConn on Monday. Still, C. Vivian Stringer’s team has a very good chance at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA draw, and knows it controls its own destiny. Rutgers beat both Louisville and St. John’s already, both at home. Either team could make it a battle – the Scarlet Knights’ low-scoring style isn’t conducive to blowouts – but an upset in this one would be highly unlikely.
Prediction: Rutgers 59, Louisville 48
No. 3 West Virginia (23-6, 12-4) vs. Syracuse-USF winner
Instant motivation could come the Mountaineers’ way if it draws Syracuse, which drubbed WVU by a 73-51 count on Monday. South Florida also played West Virginia close, losing a 79-73 clash in the league opener back on Jan. 5. The Mountaineers have arguably the league’s best post player in senior Yinka Sanni, and plenty of weapons on the outside. They’re also the only Big East team besides UConn to beat Rutgers, and you can bet that they won’t blow the opportunity to do that again.
Prediction: West Virginia 74, South Florida 62
Semifinals
Monday, March 10 (both on ESPNU)
ND-Pitt-Villanova vs. UConn-Marquette-DePaul
Barring an upset, the Irish will get a chance at redemption against the Huskies, who used a pair of big runs to win in South Bend, 81-64, on Jan. 27. Notre Dame has played well since the loss of Peters to a knee injury, but this is the game where her absence might be felt most. McGraw’s club might need to play the perfect game to win, but is certainly talented enough to do it. Avoiding droughts like the 10:52 they went without a field goal in the last game, will be key for the Irish.
Prediction: UConn 78, Notre Dame 73
Rutgers-Louisville-SJU vs. WVU-Syracuse-USF
It should again be a case of the titans clashing, with Rutgers trying to avenge a 63-54 loss in Morgantown back on Jan. 29. These two clubs match up extremely well, with Sanni and Kia Vaughn almost carbon copies of one another in the post and very athletic guards on both sides. The Mountaineers made a run to the finals two years ago and are good enough to do it again – but the Scarlet Knights know a win in this game might earn them a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
Prediction: Rutgers 54, West Virginia 52
Championship
Tuesday, March 11 (ESPN2)
Semifinal winners
Almost everyone is expecting a Rutgers-UConn rubber match, and odds are that’s what they’ll get. This one is hardly being played on a neutral court, though, as the Huskies have a built-in advantage every year with the tourney set in Hartford. Of course, that didn’t stop the Scarlet Knights from beating UConn in last year’s final. If this is indeed the game, both teams might have No. 1 seeds locked up, and it’ll be all about pride. For some reason, it seems like Rutgers has more of a chip on its shoulder – and no, Don Imus has nothing to do with it.
Prediction: Rutgers 53, UConn 50
Projected NCAA Tournament teams (estimated seeds in parentheses): Connecticut (1), Rutgers (2), West Virginia (3), Notre Dame (4), Louisville (5), Syracuse (7), Pittsburgh (8), DePaul (8)
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